2012年翻译行业10项预测

本文为happy2015原创文章，欢迎转载！
https://www.sztqbmw.com/thread-1480-1-1.html

祝大家新年快乐，我希望，2012年我们都会成功。未来难以预测。事实上，犹太法典声明，从圣殿被毁那一刻，预测能力就赋予了孩子和傻子。这听起来很对，因为你读到的一些预测在仔细推敲之下似乎非常愚蠢。2012年我的预测会是愚蠢的吗？也许吧，随他去吧。
Happy New Year everyone and I hope that 2012 is successful for all of us. Predicting the future is difficult. Indeed the Talmud states that from the time of the destruction of the Temple, the capacity to prophesize was given to children and fools. And that sounds right because some of the predictions you read sound pretty foolish in retrospect. Will my predictions for 2012 be foolish? Maybe, but here goes anyway.
1. 业务将会蒸蒸日上。继略逊一筹的2011年，2012年将是翻译公司的一个好年景。总统选举年的美国经济正在反弹，这对食物链中的大多数人来说都是好消息。越来越多的在线内容有待翻译，这对大家都意味着更多的业务。
1 Business will be good.2012 will be a good year for translation companies, following a less-than-great 2011. The US economy in a Presidential election year is rebounding and that should be good for most of the people in the food chain. More and more online content is being translated too which means more business for everyone.
2. 网站及在线翻译服务的需求将超越行业的增长。网上内容爆炸，书籍和印刷材料消亡，智能手机和移动读者的不断发展将增加网站和其他网上内容的翻译需求。
2 Demand for website and online translation services will outperform industry growth. The online content explosion, the death of books and printed materials, the increased penetration of smartphones and mobile readers will increase demand for translation of website and other online content.
3. 云服务可定制引擎。人们将能够用自己的训练语料库来创建定制的机器翻译引擎，而不需投资于昂贵的服务器和软件开发。微软已在云服务中设置了一些可将客制化引入云服务的协同翻译功能。Let’s MT是一家欧洲公司，已经开始对这个系统的概念进行试用测试（他们去年11月邀请我们开始测试该系统；尽管还没有准备好，但系统显示出很大希望，今年应该能准备完毕）。其他机器翻译公司也在考虑SaaS（软件运营）模式，我们或许在2012年能看到一些。
3 Customizable MT engines in the cloud. People will be able to create custom machine translation engines with their own training corpus, but without investing in expensive servers and software development. Microsoft already features a Collaborative Translation feature which puts some customization into the cloud. Let’s MT is a European company which already started Beta testing this very system concept (they invited us to start testing the system last November; while it is not ready yet the system shows promise and it should be ready this year). Other MT companies have also considered SaaS models and we may see some in 2012.
4. 进一步整合。像Transperfect，WeLocalize和SDL之类的大公司将通过战略兼并与收购而继续增长。大公司会变得更大，一些较小玩家将会被淘汰。
4 Further consolidation. The big companies like Transperfect, WeLocalize and SDL will continue to grow though strategic mergers and acquisitions. The big will get bigger, some of the smaller players will disappear.
5. Facebook将继续把机器翻译融入到社会网络中。他们在2011年通过整合必应翻译就已开始进行。他们将继续增加新的语言功能，以帮助打破语言障碍。
5 Facebook will continue to integrate machine translationinto the social network. They started it in 2011 by integrating the Bing Translator. They will continue to add new language features to help break down the language barrier.
6. 翻译价格将继续下降。人们，尤其是持否认态度的翻译者，在这点与我意见相悖，但我还是认为人力翻译的价格将继续下降，因为大型LSP（分层服务提供商）和翻译服务买家倾向于更多使用后编辑机器翻译工作流程。
6 Translation prices will continue to drop. People, especially translators who are in denial, have argued this point with me but I expect human translation prices to continue to drop as more use of post-edited MT workflows are adapted by large LSPs and buyers of translation services.
7. 更多失业翻译者。那些拒绝适应行业变化和依赖过时翻译模式的自由译员在2012年将为工作而争作一团。有些人可能无法找到工作，并可能需要考虑转行。
7 More unemployed translators. Freelance translators who refuse to adapt to the changes in the industry and who rely on outdated models will be scrambling for work in 2012. Some may not find it and may need to consider a career change.
8. 语音到语音翻译在2012年将不会成熟为正规的商业产品。我认为，人们将继续谈论一种通用翻译器，但那种技术进步还不足于让杀手级语音到语音应用程序成为可用于商业用途的版本。
8 Speech-to-speech translation will not mature into serious commercial products in 2012. I think that people will continue to talk about a Universal Translator but that advances in technology will not be sufficient for a killer speech-to-speech app to be released for commercial use.
9. 欧洲译员和翻译公司将变得越来越具有成本竞争力。欧元兑美元比率在过去几周已经贬值了近10％。如果经济预测成真，欧元在2012年将进一步贬值。这样美国公司购买欧洲的翻译服务将变得更加经济可行。
9 European translators and translation companieswill become more cost competitive. The Euro has fallen nearly 10% against the US Dollar in the last few weeks. If the economic predictions come true, the Euro should drop further in 2012. That will make it more economically viable for US companies to buy translation services in Europe.
10. SDL公司将推出新的后编辑软件。 SDL已经将机器翻译融入到Trados Studio 2009版本中，有可能让机器来翻译文件并对内容进行后期编辑。我预测，SDL将在2012年发布新软件，可自动完成机器翻译的后期编辑过程，让翻译自动化更快捷，更容易。
10 SDL will release new post-editing software. SDL already integrated MT into Trados Studio 2009, making it possible to machine translate a document and post-edit the content. I predict that SDL will release new software in 2012 that automates the MT post-editing process, making translation automation faster and easier.